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Growth Management Analysis |
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Cape Cod Commission and Whiteman and Taintor
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Author Info |
The Outer Cape is approaching, and perhaps has reached, a threshold past which continued incremental growth will degrade groundwater quality and create serious traffic congestion. These changes will exact a heavy price on the region's character and quality of life, and may actually stall development.
These thresholds are difficult to anticipate and many people assume that the future of the Cape will be like the last 20 years: gradually increasing population levels with gradually increasing but manageable problems. This study suggests that while that scenario will be true for some problems, other problems will mushroom in size and force Cape communities to make expensive choices that might have otherwise been avoided.
The central problems that will challenge the Outer Cape are traffic congestion and water quality deterioration. Traffic levels and delays will reach unheard-of dimensions as the capacity of the "one pipe" system of Route 6 on the Outer Cape is exceeded and the entire system slows to a crawl. Trips that once took 20 minutes in the winter will take 45 minutes within 20 years or less.
Water quality has already been degraded in some areas and is projected to decline in other areas as development reaches and exceeds the capacity of the land to process the septic system effluent. As infill development proceeds, private wells may become contaminated in more neighborhoods and towns may be forced to put in public water systems.
However, the Outer Cape cannot support future growth through providing public water systems for everyone because too much pumping would dewater important streams, wetlands and ponds in the region. Nor are there sufficient sites to install wastewater treatment plants to avoid the need for public water systems.
The Outer Cape does face real limits to its ability to grow and it will face a changing quality of life if growth proceeds as currently defined by the human and natural systems in place today.
The project's findings demonstrate that the expected 50% increase in the number of houses on the Outer Cape over the next 20 years will push the region past thresholds in the road system and groundwater quality. Fiscal capacity appears to be adequate if the current pattern of development continues. Changes in the type or mix of development could create fiscal problems for communities. Finally, while there are outer limits to the degree that development can occur without impacting the Cape's plant and wildlife systems, those limits are difficult to define at the regional level.
This traffic system threshold results from the already high levels of traffic that exist today combined with the limits available to expand the system. The Outer Cape is a "one road" region; Route 6 is the only through-road serving the entire region. As Route 6 becomes more congested, it places more and more traffic on side roads which have limited capacities for higher traffic levels. In other words, once Route 6 is near capacity, there are limited options for other roads to relieve that burden. In addition, due to immediately adjacent sensitive environmental areas, it would also be difficult to widen Route 6 in many areas.
Route 6 has been gradually nearing its capacity for the last 20 years. As this process continues, traffic problems grow slowly and incrementally in direct relation to the increasing congestion. The road system functions less efficiently, but it functions.
When Route 6's capacity is reached, however, the system breaks and the problems grow at a pace and severity much greater than what the road has experienced before. Traffic often comes to a full halt, the volume of cars mushrooms on side roads and turning movements take a very long time. Witness the difference in peak Saturday traffic today versus ten years ago. While Route 6 functions well in the off-season today, the anticipated 50% growth in homes will on its own be sufficient to create summer-like conditions in the winter by the year 2020.
Analysis shows that some of the higher density areas on the Outer Cape contain private wells that have remained seemingly unaffected by septic systems. Some people cite this as evidence that smaller lots adequately serve their wastewater and drinking water needs. The irregular occurrence of private well contamination is due, in part, to the difference between "lot sizes" and "actual densities." "Lot size" is the amount of land on an individual lot whereas "actual density" refers to the total number of houses within a defined area of land.
Many neighborhoods in the Outer Cape are surrounded by or interspersed with some undeveloped land. These lands function as a water quality "buffer" in the sense that they essentially decrease the chance that septic system effluent will intercept nearby private wells. As infilling occurs and these lands are developed, however, the number of wells that provide high quality drinking water is predicted to decrease. From 1990 to 1994, 1 of every 28 wells in Truro and 1 of every 10 wells in Wellfleet and Eastham exceeded nitrate levels of 5 mg/L. At 100 percent buildout with existing seasonal occupancy, the model predicts that 1 of every 16 wells in Truro, 1 of every 6 wells in Wellfleet, and 1 of every 4 wells in Eastham will exceed nitrate levels of 5 mg/L. At 100 percent buildout and year-round occupancy increasing by 25 percent, the model predicts that 1 of every 9 wells in Truro, 1 of every 5 wells in Wellfleet, and 1 of every 3 wells in Eastham will exceed nitrate levels of 5 mg/L.
Under current conditions, Wellfleet Center and the Rt 6 corridor in Eastham warrant consideration for the development of public water supply systems. Future growth and the replacement of seasonal households with year round occupancy may significantly impact drinking water quality of private wells on the Outer Cape, especially in high density areas of Eastham and Wellfleet, and may require the expansion of public water services into other residential areas. An advantage to establishing public services to Wellfleet Center and along the Rt 6 corridor and landfill area in Eastham in the near future is there will be a greater likelihood that future expansion could be subsidized by federal and state grants phased in over several years. It is not possible to predict the exact geographic extent or time that problems may occur in the future. For this reason a private well monitoring program should be established so that water quality problems can be planned for as they develop as opposed to reacting to them after they occur.
The analysis performed for this study created a model that allows towns to look at the difference in average single family tax bills caused by future growth. While residential and commercial growth expands a town's property tax base and therefore its revenue generating potential, it also results in two kinds of costs: major capital expenditures are needed to provide the additional or expanded facilities to serve the new residents (e.g., new schools, playgrounds and public water supplies), and school and non-school operating costs increase in relation to population growth.
The analysis indicates that Outer Cape towns have a complex relationship with growth. New growth will incur some new facility costs on most towns, particularly in the areas of school construction. However, the majority of large capital costs identified by town officials represent investments needed to serve the existing populationincluding deferred or scheduled renovations as well as existing capacity deficiencies. In these cases, new residential growth will provide increased tax revenues without a corresponding facility impact.
This analysis has also found that each town has made most of the big investments that will be needed to carry it through to buildout. Police, fire, administrative and other public buildings are mostly of sufficient size and health that they can be expected to meet the Town's needs through buildout. In addition, due to the linear nature or small size of each town, the geographic location of the key facilities will be suitable for all future growth. In other words, there will be no need to relocate a fire station in order to serve an area of town that was previously undeveloped; each town is experiencing infill rather than new neighborhood development. Thus, recent investments will continue to provide efficient service well into the future.
However, growth will impose capital costs in two areas of infrastructure investments, identified in the transportation and water elements of the capacity study. All four towns will need to improve local roads as a result of the traffic increases projected under the growth scenarios, although the costs of these improvements are modest when spread out over the 20-year forecast period. More important will be the large investments in public water supply systems that Eastham and Wellfleet may have to face, that will overshadow all other capital facility investments in these two towns. As a result, Eastham and Wellfleet are expected to experience moderate increases in average property tax bills as growth continues. In contrast, growth in Truro and Provincetown is not anticipated to result in any significant difference in tax bills.
Overall, this analysis suggests that fiscal burdens will not be a great worry for most Outer Cape townsif there is not a significant shift of seasonal homes to year-round homes with a commensurate increase in the proportion of families with children. In other words, if Outer Cape towns can continue along the path of recent years and pay off the long term investments they have made, and plan for meeting traffic and water needs, the financial future looks manageable.
The Natural Resources and Open Space section of the Capacity Study explores the impact of future development on regional natural resources. The study includes a town by town inventory of critical natural resources and these areas are mapped for future reference. In addition, the study examines the Level of Service (LOS) of protected open space in each of the towns (i.e the number acres of protected open space per capita). The findings of this section indicate that without a continuing commitment to land protection, each of the towns on the Outer Cape will experience a decline in the LOS of protected open space. This effect will be particularly pronounced if there is a significant shift from seasonal to year-round residency. However, the Outer Cape towns will still have a greater than average amount of open space, primarily due to the presence of the National Seashore. The study notes the importance of prioritizing future land acquisitions to ensure that critical natural resources and linkages between them are protected.
Within 10 to 20 years, these problems may become severe. Options for significantly increasing Route 6's capacity involve serious environmental and community character decisions. Water quality problems could require the expansion of public water services. This will have fiscal implications for town government. All of these changes will place more and more pressure on ecosystems.
What is changing now, and will change to an even greater degree in the future, is the nature of the experiences we have as we encounter and live with each other on the Outer Cape. Our numbers are changing the pace of life on the Outer Cape. At an increasing rate, the pace of life on the Outer Cape mimics the pace of life in suburbia or in urban areas: slow traffic; lots of cars; waiting in long lines; not enough parking; frustrated drivers, bicyclists and walkers; leaving early to avoid traffic; stores that are too crowded to enjoy; and less elbow room for everyone.
On the Outer Cape, the finite quality of natural resources and infrastructure is perhaps more striking than in other places: water borders the towns and gradually changes those borders through erosion and accretion; the groundwater lenses are clearly defined and overuse induces salt water contamination; Route 6 is the single artery serving the Outer Cape, when it is congested, there are few other options. Cape Codders know better than most people the importance of conserving and protecting resources due to the fragility of the region's resources.
However, the Outer Cape is approaching, and perhaps has already reached, a threshold in its growth. Beyond this threshold, continued incremental growth will pollute the groundwater and create traffic congestion to such a degree that the region's character and quality of life will be impacted. At some point, these impacts may actually stall development.
This Capacity Study provides a tool for Outer Cape communities to use to complement or refine their efforts to manage those resources. This project directly addresses key topics that lie at the heart of Cape towns' abilities to manage future growth and change: traffic, water, natural resources and open space, capital facility investments and municipal budgets/tax bills.
Communities must determine the extent and type of infrastructure that is acceptable when evaluating how to match their resources with growing demands. They should define a vision for the community and review the issues and choices identified by this study when determining whether the changes required to accommodate various levels of growth are consistent with the desired sense of place.
No cost for further open space purchases was projected in the future in the fiscal impact analysis. Fiscal analysis of the benefits of open space acquisition is outside the realm of this study, but it is an important next step to consider fiscal impacts of this in the long term. Other studies have shown the fiscal and tax benefits of limiting developable residential lands because of the tax implications of year round use. Without a means of limiting use to seasonal occupancy or of preventing conversion from seasonal to year round use, these towns will eventually be faced with the same concerns. Considering that acquisition or protection would also help to limit impacts on water resources, transportation infrastructure, natural resources and open space and community character, the fiscal benefits are much increased.
A combination of management strategies is the key to successfully addressing capacity constraints.
It is widely believed that the manner in which communities respond to the next spurt of development will determine the future of Cape Cod. Unless a significant effort is made to acquire and protect open space, the region's conservation areas will become isolated open areas surrounded by development. It is important for each of the Outer Cape towns to examine its options with regard to protection of open space and critical natural resources and to make a decision about which path it will follow into the future. Consideration should be given to the short and long term cost of land protection versus the short and long term costs of growth -- with its requirements for water, roads, schools and other improvements. It is important that this decision be both a financial one and a determination about the desired character of the community.
The study examines four major areas of impact: Water Resources, Transportation, Natural Resources and Open Space, and Fiscal Impacts. The most serious capacity constraints faced by the towns relate to transportation and water supply, but there are other concerns as well. The most severe impacts occur if there is a substantial shift from seasonal to year-round use of residential dwellings.
The study concludes that the towns have a sufficient supply of water to meet average daily demand in the future. However, under maximum day conditions (which are experienced throughout the summer months) with normal pumping, there are significant shortfalls projected. Even if the towns pump their wells 24 hours a day (a condition which can only be sustained for a few days in an emergency) there will be serious shortfalls in 2015. The report notes that while the towns are doing an excellent job of planning for near-term demand, obtaining new sources will be essential to meet the summer conditions in the future.
Regarding nitrogen loading, the study finds that all of the contributing areas to public supply wells will remain below the recommended limit of 5 parts per million (ppm) nitrate-nitrogen through 2015, provided that the mix of seasonal to year-round housing remains the same. However, the report notes that if current trends continue and a greater percentage of homes is occupied on a year-round basis, two of the contributing areas will exceed the 5ppm standard in 2015. At total build-out, if all the units were to be used year-round, sixteen of the twenty contributing areas would exceed 5ppm. This is a "worst case" scenario.
Today, few roads in the Monomoy region are considered congested (about 10% in the summer) and almost no roads are over capacity. With projected growth in the future, the road system of the Monomoy towns will become seriously impaired: By 2015, summer projections indicate that more than 22% of the system will be over capacity (gridlock) and an additional 17.5% will be badly congested. Put another way, future winter traffic conditions will resemble current summer conditions and summer conditions will be unlike anything seen before.
As congestion increases, so will the travel time required to reach desired destinations. Residents and visitors can expect to spend more of their time in their cars, driving farther and taking longer to do so. In part, this is due the dispersed residential pattern of the area; in part it is simply due to increased congestion on the roads. Air quality is also expected to worsen with congestion.
The report notes that many key natural resources in the region are not within permanently protected open space areas and thus are vulnerable to damage from inappropriate development. It finds that the greatest threat to the natural resources of the area is the reduction, fragmentation and elimination of woodland habitat. All of the towns in the Monomoy region have made successful efforts to protect open space, but protected open space per capita varies considerably from a high of .41 acres per capita in Brewster to .14 acres per capita in Harwich.
There is also a marked difference between the amount of perceived open space (that is, currently undeveloped land) and protected open space in the Monomoy towns. Without continued and increased efforts at open space acquisition, all of the towns will experience a decline in the amount of available open space and community character will change. It is possible for the towns to maintain their current ratio of protected open space per capita provided that the existing seasonal to year-round population mix is maintained and land acquisition efforts continue.
Provided that the existing mix of seasonal and year-round housing is maintained, the model forecasts that growth will cause increases in average tax bills in the future, but the impact is expected to be significant only in Brewster, which has the highest growth rate in the area. The Town of Chatham is an exception to this rule: the model suggests that growth will have a modest positive fiscal impact. Overall, the tax bills are projected to remain more or less at the current dollar levels into the future. However, it should be noted that the model does not include inflation, so there are likely to be inflation related increases in the future.
If there is a shift from seasonal to year-round housing, the fiscal impacts of growth will be far more significant. The 2015 growth scenario with a 50% shift from seasonal to year-round housing would cause tax bills to increase as much as 25% to 56%. This dramatic difference in future bills is mostly attributable to school costs.
The study recommends a number of management strategies to deal with the capacity constraints identified in the analysis, including:
Cape Cod Commission and Whiteman and Taintor
Cape Cod, Massachusetts